At tonight Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards, The King's Speech has officially declared war on The Social Network. Copping the outstanding cast in a motion picture prize, the King's Speech actors landed the equivalent of a best picture trophy -- and one that sometimes presages the best picture Oscar. The film took the prestigious Directors Guild (DGA) award last night, and a week ago it captured the Producers Guild (PGA) award. Star Colin Firth's SAG award as lead actor adds yet another kudo to his large stash, which already includes recognition by both the Los Angeles and New York film critics, a Golden Globe and Satellie Award, and at least 17 other regional film critic and miscellaneous organizations.

Black Swan's Natalie Portman received the leading actress award, which comes on the heels of her Golden Globe and some 21 regional film critics awards. Two actors from The Fighter repeated their Golden Globe victories as well: Melissa Leo as supporting actress and Christian Bale as supporting actor. 94-year-old Ernest Borgnine was given a life achievement award for his impressive seven decades as an actor.

Awards for television actors were spread among seven productions, with Boardwalk Empire and Modern Family receiving the drama and comedy ensemble recognitions, respectively.

Next up in guild ceremonies is the Visual Effects Society on Tuesday, February 1, and three guilds on Saturday, February 5: Intl. Animated Film Assn. ("Annie" Awards), the Art Directors Guild, and the Writers Guild of America (WGA), The USC Scripters Award will be announced on Friday, Feb. 4.

In a striking turnaround, The King's Speech has taken away the first two guild awards from The Social Network -- and they are significant ones to boot. First came the Producers Guild of America (PGA) kudo, which was awarded to King's Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, and Gareth Unwin. Then, last night at the Directors Guild of America (DGA) awards, The King's Speech triumphed again with their award going to Tom Hooper (also known as the director of the recent HBO series John Adams). David Fincher had been handed 23 best director awards prior to the DGA ceremony for his direction of The Social Network, while Mr. Hooper had collected none . . . nada . . . zip from the 37 or so award-giving organizations.

How is it that The Social Network could be shut out at both of these key industry awards after winning so many precursor awards? Let's examine what these two pictures have won previously:

The Social Network has won 19 regional best picture awards from critics' organizations all over the country from Austin, TX, to Washington, DC. It swept all five of the larger critics' groups -- Broadcast Film Critics Association, National Board of Review, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, National Society of Film Critics, and New York Film Critics Circle. It took both the Golden Globe and the Satellite for best dramatic picture from these two international award-bestowing bodies. And, it has three best picture awards from miscellaneous award-giving entities: African-American Film Critics Association, Alliance of Women Journalists, and the Online Film Critics Society. That makes a total of 29 awards.

The King's Speech, up until its PGA and DGA awards, managed only one regional best picture award (Phoenix Film Critics Society) and one best picture award from the British Independent Film Awards group. And it has a citation from the American Film Institute.

It's a stunning reversal, and since the DGA award is often seen as the indicator of what will win best picture at the Academy Awards, The King's Speech is looking more and more like the one to beat. Now let's see who captures the best ensemble prize at tonight's Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards.

Out of 21 categories and 105 nominees, I managed to come up with 81 of the final nominations. This year's roster of 32 feature films was fairly predictable with only a few snubs to consider -- Robert Duvall's performance in Get Low, the complete shutout of Shutter Island, Christopher Nolan's direction of Inception, the lack of Waiting for 'Superman' in the documentary feature nominees, the near shutout of both The Town and Another Year (each had one nomination), no performance nominations for Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine), Lesley Manville (Another Year), Mila Kunis (Black Swan), or Andrew Garfield (The Social Network). No editing nomination for Inception or sound nominations for Black Swan could be seen as technical snubs.

Some excellent surprises were Javier Bardem's third AMPAS nomination for his performance in Biutiful, also nominated as best foreign-language film. Dogtooth is an unconventional foreign-language nominee from Greece. I Am Love's costume design nomination came out of left field. The inclusion of The Social Network's score (a favorite of mine) is a happy surprise, and the beautiful The Illusionist placing in the animated feature category rather than one of the bloated 3-D studio pics gladdened my heart.

The King's Speech leads with a total of 12 nominations, True Grit has an astonishing 10, Inception and The Social Network each have 8, and The Fighter comes in with 7. 127 Hours stays in the game with 6 nominations, and both Black Swan and Toy Story 3 each have 5 nominations. The Kids Are All Right and independent feature Winter's Bone contend with 4 nominations, Alice in Wonderland has 3, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I and How to Train Your Dragon came up with 2 nominations apiece.

Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

While the 10 films nominated for the PGA award are the likeliest candidates to repeat on Oscar's best film list, there are five films that seem to be contending for the 9th and 10th slots on the ballot: Another Year, 127 Hours, Shutter Island, The Town, and Winter's Bone. The latter, a well-received independent film released early in the year, is a non-contender in all of the guild contests, as is Mike Leigh's Another Year. Although 127 Hours is in four of the races and The Town is in three, the lackluster box office for 127 Hours may have an impact on its ability to place on the AMPAS list on Tuesday. The bleak subject matter may damper Winter's Bone's chances, while Ben Affleck's reputation and solid direction for The Town bode well for that film. Scorsese's Shutter Island copped three guild nominations, but may not have enough momentum to land in the top ten. Although my preference would be for WInter's Bone and Another Year to be included in the 10 nominees, I'm predicting that The Town and 127 Hours will take their places.

Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan 
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter

No real question here: I think the director nominees will match those of the DGA. While I would love to see Debra Granik or Mike Leigh (for Winter's Bone and Another Year, respectively) be among the five nominees, I don't think that will happen.

Actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

I haven't changed my picks here for weeks, and I don't see any real surprises to come. However, the work of Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine, Aaron Eckhart in Rabbit Hole, and Javier Bardem in Biutiful would be terrific left-field choices.

Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Natalie Portman, Black Swan

I see four (fairly) solid candidates -- Bening, Lawrence, Kidman, and Portman -- and five possible nominees that could land in the fifth position: Manville, Julianne Moore, Hailee Steinfeld, Hilary Swank, and Michelle Williams. Another Year's Manville could end up in the supporting category as she did on BAFTA's ballot, although her campaign has been for leading; however, she did not show up on SAG's ballot, which may show little support for an Oscar nomination. Ms. Moore is a four-time Oscar nominee and is nominated with Bening on the BAFTA ballot, but her Kids Are All Right partner has thus far garnered all the actress laurels for that film. True Grit's Steinfeld has a supporting SAG nomination, but she was nominated in the leading category of the British Academy (BAFTA) ballot. Two-time Oscar winner Swank landed a leading SAG nomination, but has been absent from most of the other ballots and awards to date. Williams is a former Oscar nominee, but she, too, has been missing from most pre-Oscar awards. What makes this category even more confusing is the lack of attention (and box office) granted Rabbit Hole and Winter's Bone, which may make Kidman and Lawrence vulnerable.

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Another category where I haven't modified my predictions for weeks, these nominees feel like a lock. Three other contenders may surprise, but none of them have managed significant pre-Oscar wins: John Hawkes of Winter's Bone (he is on SAG's ballot and won the San Diego critics' supporting actor laurel), Conviction's Sam Rockwell, and Michael Douglas in Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps.

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

I believe we have three certain contenders here: Adams and Leo for The Fighter, and Carter for The King's Speech. Both Kunis and Barbara Hershey may be duking it out for Black Swan, and Animal Kingdom's Jacki Weaver has a number of pre-Oscar wins that may help get her nominated. The larger question is whether True Grit's Steinfeld will be placed here (as campaigned for) or in the leading category.

Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

The Ghost Writer strikes me as the one film that might replace one of my predicted nominees. It received a nod from the USC's Scripter Award annual nominee list, taking Toy Story 3's place.

Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Another Year and Please Give could appear as one of the five nominees in this category. The WGA list included Please Give but overlooked Another Year. The Academy's past good will toward Mr. Leigh may help him here, but the film has lacked traction during award season.

Foreign-Language Film
Biutiful (Mexico)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Life, Above All (South Africa)
Simple Simon (Sweden)

Anybody's guess, given that this is determined by committee. However, four of the nine finalists for the ballot seem likely based on reputation and pre-Oscar wins: Biutiful, In a Better World (Globe winner), Incendies, and Life, Above All. I think the final slot is between Algeria's Outside the Law and Sweden's Simple Simon.

Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

The three final nominees are between four films, two of which are certain: How to Train Your Dragon and Toy Story 3. The last slot will go to either Despicable Me or The Illusionist, and I'm going with the latter.

Art Direction-Set Decoration
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King's Speech
Shutter Island
True Grit

Fantasy and period films usually fill this category, and this year is no different. Inception and Alice for the former, and King's Speech, Shutter Island,and True Grit for the latter. I still wonder if Black Swan's momentum (and artistic detail) and the fine work in Robin Hood will sneak in here.

Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
127 Hours
The Social Network
True Grit

While I'd like to match the ASC's choices for my predictions, I'm wondering if The King's Speech might be left out here. I've substituted 127 Hours, and the excellent lensing on Shutter Island could be a possibility.

Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham
True Grit

This category has a fetish for opulent, period garb or fantastic, modern creations. The nominees often share a nomination in the art direction category; thus, I'm including Alice, King's Speech, and True Grit as repeaters here. I'm adding the authentic 60s design of Dagenham and the eye-catching designs in Black Swan to the nominees. Three other films could be contenders here: Inception, Robin Hood, and The Tempest -- all of them have arresting, strong, and memorable designs.

Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

My nominees match those of the films nominated by the American Cinema Editors (ACE) in the "best edited feature film (dramatic)" category. I don't see any others as real contenders here.

Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
True Grit
Wolfman

There are only four other finalists that could be nominated here: Barney's Version, The Fighter, Jonah Hex, and The Way Back. The obvious choices are Alice and Wolfman. The third slot is up for grabs, and I'm choosing True Grit for its gritty realism over Barney's aging, The Way Back's war makeup, and The Fighter's authentic hairstyling and makeup. I didn't see Jonah Hex.

Original Score
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network

My ear has been attracted to all five of these scores from the outset. While that may not be the best way to determine the nominees, it's good enough for me. Other scores getting some ink elsewhere are Alice in Wonderland, 127 Hours, and The Ghost Writer -- all of which are composed by previous Oscar nominees.

Original Song
"I See the Light" from Tangled
"If I Rise" from 127 Hours
"Shine" from Waiting for 'Superman'
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" from Burlesque

With 41 shortlisted songs, this category is not easy to predict. However, using composer and lyricist names that have previously been favored by Oscar, most of my predictions meet that criteria. (I'm secretly hoping that "Welcome to Burlesque" will replace Diane Warren's ballad that has garnered so much attention during the season -- or even replace one of the other four.)

Sound Editing
Black Swan
Inception
127 Hours
TRON: Legacy
True Grit

All of these films were nominated in the Motion Picture Sound Editors' (MPSE) "feature film effects and Foley" category. Other possibilities: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2, or Salt.

Sound Mixing
Black Swan
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit

These match four of the Cinema Audio Society's five nominees. I'm replacing Shutter Island with How to Train Your Dragon, only because I found it more memorable and more exciting.

Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON Legacy

Hereafter (mostly for its opening tsunami sequence) and Scott Pilgrim v. The World are the only other finalists for this category. These five have been on my predictions for weeks, so I'm keeping them right where they are.

Documentary
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waiting for "Superman"
Waste Land

The International Documentary Association (IDA) chose Waste Land as the "most distinguished documentary" of the year over Exit Through the Gift Shop, which has won the majority of documentary awards thus far.  Inside Job, Restrepo, and Waiting for 'Superman' have all been critically acclaimed. That's why they are predicted here. However, this category is notorious for including films that aren't necessarily the most successful (box office or critic-wise). Other likely candidates from remaining finalists include: Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer, Gasland, The Tillman Story, and William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe. The rest of the contenders are Enemies of the People, Genius Within: The Inner Life of Glenn Gould, The Lottery, Precious Life, Quest for Honor, and This Way of Life.

With the announcement of the Producers Guild of America award last night to The King's Speech, it seemed like a good idea to check out which films placed most often in the various guilds' lists of nominees. Their nominations offer an insight as to which films may find a place on the Oscar ballot this Tuesday.

Analyzing the various guild nominees uncovers six films that have placed among seven or more of the craft guilds: Black Swan (11), Inception and The Social Network (10), The King's Speech (8), and The Fighter and True Grit (7). Scoring nods in five guilds were Alice in Wonderland and The Kids Are All Right, while 127 Hours, How to Train Your Dragon, Toy Story 3, and TRON: Legacy were cited by three guilds.

Guild award ceremonies coming up this week:
Friday, January 28: Visual Effects Society (VES)
Saturday, January 29: Directors Guild of America (DGA)
Sunday, January 30: Screen Actors Guild (SAG)

The first guild award out of the gate, the Producers Guild of America's Darryl F. Zanuck Award for outstanding producer of a theatrical motion picture, went to The King's Speech producers on Saturday night. With The Social Network having accumulated nearly 30 awards for best picture from various regional and national award-giving groups already, the PGA award indicates there will be a race to the finish for the best picture Oscar. The last three winners of the PGA award -- The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire, and No Country for Old Men -- all went on to capture the top prize at the Academy Awards. Historically, two-thirds of the PGA winners have won Oscar's best picture. The Directors Guild of America (DGA) is also seen as a major predictor of who will win best picture at the Oscars, and the DGA winner will be announced next Saturday night.

To date, The King's Speech has garnered best picture awards from only two other entities, the British Independent Film Awards and the Phoenix (AZ) Film Critics Society. It was also given a special award by the American Film Institute.

Other awards at the PGA ceremony included Toy Story 3 for animated picture and Waiting for 'Superman' for documentary. Individual awards were bestowed upon James Cameron, Scott Rudin, Tom Hanks, and Laura Ziskin.

There has never been more than two films in any given year in Oscar's history that received 10 nominations. Curiously, my preliminary final predictions have Black Swan, Inception, The King's Speech, and True Grit all with 10 apiece. I need to go through my list one more time before Tuesday to see where my calculations might be slightly off. I would expect both Black Swan and Inception to come up with 10 nominations, given the solid craft shown in both films. The craft is just as solid in the other two, but perhaps more subtle in realization.

Behind these four films, The Social Network is runner-up with 9 nominations, then The Fighter with 7, and 127 Hours with 6. For a film that is not doing well at the box office, and for which I found difficult to like, 127 Hours may be placed in too many categories. However, once again it is a well-made film in every sense of any technical considerations. Receiving 4 nominations are Alice in Wonderland, The Kids Are All Right, and Toy Story 3.

All in all, there are 27 feature films that have been predicted to appear on Oscar's nominee list. That's about right, since the average number of feature films each year is around 30.

    The Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) revealed their 2010 nominees in seven different categories -- feature film music, feature film dialogue and automated dialogue replacement (ADR), feature film music in a musical, feature film effects and Foley, feature film animation, feature film documentary, and feature film foreign language. Those films garnering multiple nominations are listed below, and the award ceremony is scheduled for February 20.

3 nominations: Black Swan and Inception
2 nominations: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I, The Social Network,
                        TRON: Legacy, and True Grit.

The guild will also give their MPSE Filmmaker award to Brian Grazer, and a career achievement award goes to Walter Murch.

The Costume Design Guild released its list of 2010 nominees in three categories -- contemporary, period, and fantasy films. Those films that have landed the most guild nominations to date -- Black Swan, Inception, The Social Network, The King's Speech, The Fighter, and True Grit -- all appear here. :

Excellence in Contemporary Film
“Black Swan” (Amy Westcott)
“Burlesque” (Michael Kaplan)
“Inception” (Jeffrey Kurland)
“The Social Network” (Jacqueline West)
“Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps” (Ellen Mirojnick)

Excellence in Period Film
“The Fighter” (Mark Bridges)
“The King’s Speech” (Jenny Beaven)
“True Grit” (Mary Zophres)

Excellence in Fantasy Film
“Alice in Wonderland” (Colleen Atwood)
“The Tempest” (Sandy Powell)
“TRON: Legacy” (Christine Bieselin Clark, Michael Wilkinson)

From the 66 eligible films that had originally qualified for consideration in the foreign-language film category, nine films have been named in a shortlist issued by the Academy today. The shortlist was created from the six films selected by several hundred L.A.-based members who screened eligible films between mid-October and January 13, as well as three additional choices voted by the Academy's Foreign-Language Film Award Executive Committee. Specially invited committees in both New York and Los Angeles will view three shortlisted films a day from January 21-23, finally deciding on five nominees that will be announced on January 25. The films that made the cut today follow.

Algeria, Hors la Loi (Outside the Law); Rachid Bouchareb, director
Canada, Incendies, Denis Villeneuve, director
Denmark, In a Better World; Susanne Bier, director
Greece, Dogtooth; Yorgos Lanthimos, director
Japan, Confessions; Tetsuya Nakashima, director
Mexico, Biutiful; Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, director
South Africa, Life, Above All; Oliver Schmitz, director
Spain, Tambien la Lluvia (Even the Rain); Iciar Bollain, director
Sweden, Simple Simon;  Andreas Ohman, director